North Dakota Ag Connection - Stable Durum Market Amid Planting Challenges and Global Factors

North Dakota Ag News Headlines

Stable Durum Market Amid Planting Challenges and Global Factors
North Dakota Ag Connection - 05/31/2023

The durum market remains stable despite ongoing planting challenges faced by producers. With limited trading activity, the market indicates a thin trading environment until significant price shifts occur. While some frustration exists over planting delays in parts of North Dakota and the Northern Plains, other regions have managed timely planting, benefiting from favorable moisture conditions.

The market is currently less concerned about these delays, but if catch-up progress is not made in the coming weeks, there may be potential acre losses in North Dakota. However, certain factors help support the market and prevent further price drops. Severe drought conditions in Morocco and Tunisia have led to reduced durum production estimates by the International Grains Council (IGC), with Morocco's crop forecast lowered from 50 million bushels to 44 million bushels and Tunisia's estimate reduced from 36 million bushels to 18 million bushels.

These reductions, coupled with increased demand from North Africa, have the potential to strengthen the market. However, the market must also consider the larger and favorable Italian crop, which may offset the shortfalls in North Africa.

As the durum crops in Canada and the northern United States progress, the market will gain a clearer understanding of regional supplies. Analysts anticipate stable to higher production in both countries compared to the previous year. However, mid-May reports indicate planting delays in certain areas, with North Dakota at 38 percent planted and Canada slightly behind its average planting progress.

While recent weather conditions have been more favorable for catch-up planting, a portion of the crop is expected to be planted later than usual. Current price levels indicate most North Dakota producer bids around $8.25, lower than recent highs. Concerns about the size of the world durum crop are emerging, but their impact remains relatively insignificant at this point.

Additionally, domestic demand reflects lower prices in comparison to the previous year, with Chicago prices at $11.50 per bushel compared to $16.25 a year ago. Producer-level bids have also decreased, dropping from around $14 per bushel to $8.

In summary, the durum market shows stability amidst planting challenges and is influenced by global factors such as drought conditions and crop expectations in different regions.

Other North Dakota Headlines